Assumptions, despite the Phrase Don’t ASSUME. It only makes an ASS out of U and ME we all make assumptions. We have to. We just don’t have enough information to do anything else.
First of all our biggest assumption is that something is going to happen. If we didn’t make that assumption we wouldn’t bother prepping. The next assumption is that it is survivable, again, if we didn’t make that assumption it wouldn’t be worth doing anything. So assumptions despite being best avoided in most situations are actually the guiding light for preppers.
The problem for us though is that although they may be the reason we do things it doesn’t make our assumptions any more accurate than anyone elses. Our assumptions are very likely to make an ass out of us and as the situation is likely to be dire when that happens the making an ass could work out to be fatal rather than humorous.
Almost every decision we make is based on a factual component coupled with a shed load of assumption. Bugging in, we assume that there won’t be many others around us to compromise our OPSEC, bugging out we assume we can make it to out BOL and that our caches will remain undisturbed. Many of us just don’t know how to weight the risk involved in prepping mainly because there is so little data associated with it. Nobody has experienced the kind of scenarios we are predicting and those that have experienced them have done so in wildly differing environments. Thus we are forced, yet again, to make assumptions.
When we consider what we think will happen, again we make assumptions on how things will pan out. Some people will over estimate how well they will do under a stressful situation while others will find strength and courage that they didn’t know they had. Yet, we all make roughly the same plans. Mainly because we are realists. There isn’t that much we can do. We can store food and material, we can read up and prepare ourselves mentally but as we just don’t know what actually will happen we just make the assumption that what we are doing is right. After all, everyone needs to eat, that is why we store food, but we could lose the food or find we don’t need it. Nobody knows.
So when we discuss issues on the sites we should always remember that many peoples opinions are no more valid than yours. Some people just talk like they know exactly what is going to happen, their experiences can be such that they are making less assumptions and their views may be correct. On the other hand they may be armchair warriors and are just repeating information they heard elsewhere. Just because something is repeated regularly and passed on as fact doesn’t make it right. That is the curse of the internet.
For example I go on a lot about groups. For building a community and a future, even one I may not be around to see, is important to me. I want my family to go on. I have spent a significant sum on material and time to aid this. My assumption being that we can restart, not to replicate what we have now but to make something better. I may not be right or I may be right for me but not for you. It is just opinion always remember, opinions are like assholes, everyone has one.
Not everyone talks sense, not everyone is realistic and not everyone is right about what is best for you. Ask questions and consider the source, consider the answer they have given. Temper that with your own experiences, does it make sense. However, in the end you have to decide for yourself if it makes sense and then, if necessary, adjust your preps. Revisit the decision if you find out something new that makes you question the original decision. Don’t get stuck because you have moved on.
Regardless of what your choices are you are preparing for something. Make sure you do your best in preparing for that by listening to every point of view you can, positive or negative, and choose your course, you can even mix and match if your circumstances don’t fit in with any of the options you have been given.
You owe it to yourself and your family.