Many of us are planning to bug out as soon as we realise something is going on. Others will wait for the initial rush is over and bug out is a more controlled manner, some of us don’t intent to bug out whilst some of us have already bugged out.
Regardless of your chosen option you should always have several bug out plans and have prepared for either eventuality. Plans change and like everything else those that have thought about the options and planned will find they are in a much better position.
Those that have already bugged out and are living in a new location can be classed as bugging in. Bugging in is easy, it is what you are doing now except a lot more of keeping your head down. However, what if you are not keeping your head down enough or are simply unlucky?
Your chosen option may be unavailable to you for a wide variety of reasons. You can’t simply assume that everything is going to work out.
So those that are bugging in need to prepare for bugging out if your location is compromised. You may consider just bugging out long enough for the threat to pass by or you could just abandon the place. It depends on how much you have invested in the structure and what the threat is. For those of us intending to bug out immediately we may miss the optimum time, perhaps a family member is late, and the trip now looks too risky.
Whatever the reason our plans have changed, we are either going to bug in or bug out now where before we were arranging our entire prepping plans around doing something different.
By bugging in we are now reliant on the supplies and stores at our current location and any caches and supplies stored en-route or at our bug out location are no longer available to us. Conversely by bugging out all the work we have put in at our current location is for naught. We may lose it all.
Because of this we should all plan for both eventualities right down to losing everything. Picking the option that gives us the best chances of survival as our primary whilst allowing for the other options as the situation changes. It will mean duplication of our key requirements and more costs but with careful considerations you can minimise the costs. For example, a cache with only those items you need in long term may be worthwhile burying out of the way where you can get to from either of your planned locations.
It is better to run with a preprepared bug out bag than to stay and die because you decided to bug in and you have not prepared for any other option as that is likely to be the option if you cannot adapt to changes.
For most of us this drastic a change of plans is catastrophic. Myself I would lose a significant number of my food stores and supplies that would make survival that much more difficult. However, by preparing for that eventuality I have improved my chances of survival there if I have to chance plans at that stage. Also by considering being forced out I will adapt my bug in plans to include better hiding facilities for my stores as well as considering more drastic measures in maintaining OPSEC.
We need to be flexible in our planning and this key area is one where we all seem to get entrenched.
Remember the military motto. ‘Plans never survive first contact with the enemy’
Certainly you are right there S.D. fluidity in planning is key.
Or at least if you must have a set plan be able to adapt to events as they change.
Preppers with fluid plans, able to adapt to whatever circumstance throws their way will be the ones to survive when others cant or wont change their ways.
Adapt, overcome, survive, thrive.
Even if your plan is 100% to be already bugged in and you have moved to live permenantly in your chosen location you STILL need a BOB, The place could burn down accidentally, it could be flooded or any of a number of reasons could force you out. It could be the government moving in to re-establish control, or it could be a rampaging mob who come across you retreat. You should always have a BOB ready for each member of the family.
Heck it doesnt even need to be a TEOTWAWKI situation looks at all the people recently driven from their homes recently because of terrorist acts, floods and helicopters crashing into cranes.
Life is much more convenient when you have a BOB as a backup.
This reminds me of that American survivalist from the OK Panhandle, a well experienced ex US military chap who retired to the area, bough a house and a plot of land to try and live self sufficiently. He decided that he home was his bug in location, until a flash flood came along in a 1 in 100 year event. First he thought someone was stealing in car , until he looked out the window to see it floating away, then the water flooded the downstairs of his single story house driving him onto the roof, from their he felt the house move on its foundations due the the weight of water pushing it so he grabbed his BOB and scrambled into a tree. Thats where he was for nearly 24 hours til the water subsided and he could climb down. His BOB fed him and watered him until rescue came the following day.
It seems you can spend your life planning and never actually plan for what happens. But if you plan for the most likely scenarios then that covers most of the others in a broad sense.
I would rather have an adjustable spanner in my toolkit than just a 10 mm spanner. I could just plan on the 10 mm bolts coming loose on my van and only carry a 10 mm spanner but there are nuts and bolts from 5 mm to 32 mm fitted so it makes sense to plan on dealing with different sized bolts coming loose.
In a suburban, modern village or small town setting, bugging in can be the key to survival. Our plan is to live off supplies in the house for as many months as possible (enough for about 8), by that time, the people who were going to die anyway would have died and the people who were going to move away in search of food would have anyway leaving around 5% of the original population. Seeds that were planted during the beggining of SHTF would start being harvested and re-planted and the post-SHTF lifestyle would begin.