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A controlled lowering rather than a fall.

One likely scenario from an economic collapse is not a total collapse but instead a partial collapse within certain parameters. A controlled lowering rather than a fall. This could mean that there will not be a collapse that will have everyone leaving their homes and going to concentration camps or running around the countryside starving to death. We could end up in the situation where everything continues pretty much as it is now but with rationing and soviet style restrictions and control. Pretty much as it was after WWII.

This would probably have the biggest impact on most of us preppers. Our neighbours wouldn’t be moving but still scavenging. There would no nowhere we could build our little farms and we wouldn’t be able to have any livestock. We would be better than most as we would have our stored food to suppliment our rations and providing we can keep OPSEC we should be OK.

The risks though are that we could very well get raided by someone after our daily bread. The WWII ethic is long gone and this is a real possibility. However, even if you manage to defend your property a simple word in the local governments ear would see you getting shot for hoarding and your food confiscated.

So, on the one hand it isn’t TEOTWAWKI but it isn’t business as usual. Deaths will occur either from starvation or from the heavy hand of our government maintaining it’s tight grip. However, it does mean that our species will continue, albeit with a much reduced population and so your focus must be on keeping you and yours alive. Probably easier than it would be after a real event but it requires a completely different way of thinking.

We would need to keep OPSEC and would be forced to become the Grey Man we talk so much about. This circumstance mandates it if you are anywhere near others. So pretty much keeping hidden staches, collecting things overnight and not making anyone envious but instead of a year we would be looking at the possibility of several years. This will effect the health of your family and weaken them despite all you can do. Wouldn’t do to have your kids being healthy whilst all around them are losing weight and being ill.

This is one of the scenarios when you want to be outside and away from people. You can still collect your rations but you won’t be watched 24/7. So even if you are planning Bugging In you should try and find somewhere you can Bug Out to if this situation occurs. Perhaps a remote relative. Providing you can walk or bike it it will enable you to build a better future. If you have to relocate then perhaps some pre prep would be required although you wouldn’t want to get searched travelling to this new location. The awkward area as you don’t know what the restrictions will be but you can work out the distance and at least ensure you have sufficient fuel.

Ironically, this is the one event that is best for the species but would be worse for you individually. Think about how you would handle it and what you could do.

15 comments to A controlled lowering rather than a fall.

  • iaaems

    Probably the most realistic of situations as I see things. Lets face it the so called ‘government’ is nothing other than a ‘master slave protection racket’ that has morphed into its present format over time. As they would see it, possibly, the current format is like a tree and one should aspire to be on the next branch above. That is, of course, if one wants to aspire.
    Surviving is where its at for me and mine with the odd crumb of comfort here and there.

  • rush2112

    In my mind this is the most likely scenario, joined with more frequent labour strikes affecting trucking and distribution, etc. Regrettably I also agree with the point that the ethics and morals of generations past are gone. When I’ve talked to older folks who experienced the great depression, they tell stories of being extremly poor, getting food rations of cheese, flour, etc. and still going to bed hungry most nights. But there wasnt a big problem of robbery or riots and such. There were some but not on a large scale.

    Let’s take this then to the next level whereas there has been a major global “economic restructuring” and say unemployment running around 30%. This situation is the breeding ground of despots and dictators. Thats when it goes from bad to worse.

  • Luci ferson

    this is actually my worse case scenario, id rather have total sudden ETWAWKI than a slower painfull collapse.
    I assume most would prefer the slower version.
    Its the only reason I can see why were still part of European union.
    we leave and we suddenly go financial bankrupt overnight.
    or we stay in it and slowly go bankrupt with the rest of them.

  • Skean Dhude

    The risk of these scenarios changes as time goes on but I think most of us see an economic collapse as being the event. However, as with all of these things the devil is in the detail.

    I’m having a rethink although I think my preps are up to scratch I’m not sure my plans are.

  • Northern Raider

    Most civilisations go with a wimper and not a bang, usually those civilisations fall as they rot from within, As a civilisation or culture gets more civilised and more decadent the more the cancer pervades its core. Greek,Persian, Egyptian, Roman,Napolionic, British, American all rotted away from within. The fall of the west is inevitable we dont make anything to trade with, we import our food and energy , we are getting further and further in debt to China, India , Brazil and Russia.Uncontrolled immigration has been totally disasterous. We no longer even control our own borders and the perverted immoral degenerates that are the Euro socialists are slowly destroying the whole of western europe.
    We cannot generate even enough electricty to meet our own needs. Our cities are crime infested slums full of people who think live OWEES them a living at everyone elses expense.
    In my mind the rot started after we bankrupted ourselves fighting WW2 then the launch of the welfare state set the decay spreading.our industrial and manufacturing base was wiped out by the 80s so the welfare bill for the unfortunate now exceeds the total revenue from income tax and NI.

    Just as happened before in istory more and more needy and desperate migrate into cities looking for jobs, homes, handouts etc and those once vibrant cities become places of desperation and decay.

    Its all rather clever because only the rich, well connected and influential and SOME preppers can see the frog in the saucepan scenario and jumped out before the water boiled them to death.

  • Highlander

    This post has completely changed the way I see the the social collapse, I think most people would expect that there would be a bubble that would burst causing riots and food shortages, and within a few days all hell has broke loose and the country is in a desperate state.

    Yet this scenario makes far more sense, and its easier to see that this is the way things are going now, we can no longer sit and wait for the big event,… we can now see that the event has probably already started, this scenario would take time to get to a desperate state, but so many things have to happen before most people know that they are in trouble, there is no bubble to bust,.. its just sprung a leak,… it will collapse in time

    So,…I will keep doing what I am doing, but with a slightly different picture in my mind

  • bigpaul

    i see an economic collapse as perhaps a slow thing but then the country becomes bankrupt and THATS when you see the social collapse, the riots, the arson and all the rest.

  • Northern Raider

    Cities becoming grossly over crowded and regardless of how much more money governments pour into these places its still not enough to provide the essentials, 240,000 extra school places needed for next year, numbers of cops falling though they are funded better than ever. Massive housing shortages with 1.5 million people on waiting lists, power supplies running short and heading to critical mid 2014. Cost of basic essentials such as bread,flour, milk, cheese etc rising alarmingly, Costs of motoring and public transport becoming ridiculous. NHS services becoming over burdoned. The only thing going up is our tax bills and the numbers living in poverty. Banking system is buggered and the EU is stealing peoples life savings to keep the EU afloat. Records numbers of our children unable to find work or afford university places. Public health issues rising alarming from the huge increase in the rats population and its associated increase in Weils disease risks. TB rates increasing etc etc This society is dying a death of a thousand tiny cuts, not one epic event.

    • John

      You know I don’t always agree with NR and never have but in both these posts he talks sense and is 100% correct in what he says.
      The only problem I see is that the way us ‘preppers’ prep is going to have to change to adapt to this sort of slow collapse. One that may take many years before the final disintegration of society. If society were to collapse quickly then our preps may certainly help, our stores etc. If it is death by a thousand cuts, as NR suggests, and I agree, it will creep up on us and we will be caught out, then we are going to have to review our prepping strategy.
      One cannot just hide out until it dies down. May be we are going to have to learn to live and hide within.
      Certainly a very thought provoking couple of posts NR.

      • Northern Raider

        To survive we again must learn from history and become a sub culture living within a culture albeit a terminally ill culture, EG jews living in Europe in the 30s had to learn to be completely self reliant among their own community as they faced hostility from Commies, Socialists, Fascists and Capitalists,Certain American Indian tribal groups managed to survive (some better than others)the genocidal attacks by everyone from the Spanish, Mexicans and white American settlers.The Irish catholic minority community survived by becoming self reliants when they were a persecuted minority in the middle of the 20th century in Ulster. Many tribal groups still live autonimously within other larger dominant cultures in places like Finland, Ukraine, Siberia, Manchuria, Northern Japan, Chile, Peru. And let us never forget the magnificent achievements of the White Rhodesians creating a fertile thriving bread basket in Rhodesia out of barren scrubland.

        We either learn to cooperate and adapt but most of all learn to be more self reliant, or we will die out of become subjugated peasants like most ordinary EU citizens have become (Please line up to give the state your pensions and life savings as the millionaires in charge want to waste it).

        Make sure you understand ONE point in particular, I’m talking about independant but cooperative self reliant groups, not effing socialism and the misery it always creates.

  • iaaems

    Rather than getting paranoid and or depressed about what is now happening, which possibly has a start date around 2007/8, we have to accept that it is happening and to evolve as best we can. It all seems very strange to me that this financial event should happen just as all the baby boomers come to the counter asking for their pensions etc to be honoured by the various providers and then finding that there is an ‘unavoidable shortfall’ in the final figures due to ‘circumstances beyond our control’. Total rubbish, this has been engineered!
    As individuals we probably cannot alter any of this but as individuals we possibly can survive better than most because we are aware and are prepared to do something about it.
    Keep your assets flexible and your powder dry – it may be necessary to do some truly strange things over the next few years.

    • Northern Raider

      Getting Paranoid will achieve nothing.

      Getting Switched on, Getting Prepped, Getting Skilled, Getting up to date, and Getting Ready will achieve everything.

  • Northern Raider

    In our society we are the 1% who can and do think outside the box, but of that 1% preppers I guesstimate that the majority talk the talk but never walk the walk.

  • Luci ferson

    wel all have to walk the walk at sometime.
    some will be just better prepped than others.

  • Undertaker

    I agree with pretty much everything that has been said, unless North Korea does kick it off or some middle east nut hits the button, we will just slowly fall into a decline. We can all see prices going up and pack sizes going down, we all know that migrants are flooding into the UK, and we all know that so much of our power is imported that we (as a nation) would or could be bought to our knees by anyone of a number of outside elements or forces; and yes anybody on this site is more clued in than most, but as NR says how many ‘walk the walk’ ? I know i don’t, at least not enough; my supplies may last a week as it is at the moment; but at the moment i can still add more, if prices continue to rise or i lose my job it’s game over.
    Mind how you go.

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