As yet another socialist experiment fails with the collapse of Venezuela where a dozen eggs are selling for $150 and inflation is expected to hit 1200% we must watch and learn from what is going on there so we can adapt here.
Watching others as they deal with issues that may come our way even if we don’t end up as bad is always worthwhile.
So, inflation is through the roof, People are giving up what were good jobs and turning to crime which has increased dramatically with the black market selling vital items, including foodstuffs at 3 times the market rate. Only they actually have things to sell unlike the standard stores which have empty shelves all the time. Which means that eggs are $50 a dozen in the stores, but they don’t have any, however you can get them for $150 on the black market and people get a cut of that to live.
As 75% of the people in that country are classed as in poverty they simply can’t afford the black market prices without turning to crime and therefore the ones who stick to the laws of the land are starving, eating their pets and slaughtering zoo animals. The murder rate has skyrocketed and Venezuela is now one of the murder capitals of the world.
The governments cure is to order businesses to sell things at a cost they calculate, which means at a loss. Which isn’t really a sustainable model as business become bankrupt.
Plus the government spent and spent when the money was coming in, just like Gordo did here, so when things changed there was no money under the sofa.
All and all the typical ending of a socialist country. So no surprises there.
What we need to do though is look at what that does to the average punter.
Many are starving, it is impossible for them to get food and they are adapting to steal, barter and go outside social norms to survive. This has been going on for weeks so our plans for simply putting out heads down for a few weeks look unlikely. It is unlikely that we will go unnoticed for long enough to survive. Someone will notice that we are not starving, our kids may say or do something to their friends and we will then become the subject of unwanted visitors. Even basics like soap, toilet rolls, clothes will give us away and any animals that are not able to be hidden completely will be the subject of interest. Chickens, ducks and other small animals are not quiet animals and will be hunted down. If you have any of these animals you need to hide or relocate them the instant that you recognise what is going on.
Plus with people breaking into houses you need to ensure that anything you have is stored out of the way. Somewhere where you can get to it but it will be safe. Alternatively you need to have a permanent guard on your items and be prepared to fight for them.
I’m looking at just disappearing for a few months if anything happens but this shows that people are surviving those few months and you can’t hide forever. You either need to disappear completely and hope nobody finds you or you need to be ruthless with anyone attempting to take your stuff. Not many of us can be that ruthless. It is something to think about.
Consider your own situation.
- Can you survive six months of little food?
- Will your neighbours be looking at stealing from you?
- Have you enough for your family to survive six months?
- Can you defend your stores for months?
- Can you hide your livestock for months?
- Can your family keep OPSEC?
Most of us are planning to bug in. In this situation could we do that?
I don’t think most of us have considered this scenario carefully enough. We have assumed quick die off and empty streets within a few months. These people are still surviving after nearly six months with no sign of it finishing. Can you survive that?
Personally, I’m looking at my contingency plans again and changing my thoughts on how quickly our streets will be cleared. I can tell you now that it will require changes to my plans and require more hidden stores plus a complete rethink on my livestock management which will be the biggest issue for me. It also reinforces the statement that you do not want to be city based and if you are you need an exceptional Bug In plan or a valid Bug Out plan.
Time to update your contingency plans I think especially as several western countries have told their people to stock up and prepare for emergencies, not the UK of course, our government is too busy working on the sugar tax to add another stealth tax to the very long list and working out how to delay Brexit. Critical things for our wonderful leaders.