As yet another socialist experiment fails with the collapse of Venezuela where a dozen eggs are selling for $150 and inflation is expected to hit 1200% we must watch and learn from what is going on there so we can adapt here.
Watching others as they deal with issues that may come our way even if we don’t end up as bad is always worthwhile.
So, inflation is through the roof, People are giving up what were good jobs and turning to crime which has increased dramatically with the black market selling vital items, including foodstuffs at 3 times the market rate. Only they actually have things to sell unlike the standard stores which have empty shelves all the time. Which means that eggs are $50 a dozen in the stores, but they don’t have any, however you can get them for $150 on the black market and people get a cut of that to live.
As 75% of the people in that country are classed as in poverty they simply can’t afford the black market prices without turning to crime and therefore the ones who stick to the laws of the land are starving, eating their pets and slaughtering zoo animals. The murder rate has skyrocketed and Venezuela is now one of the murder capitals of the world.
The governments cure is to order businesses to sell things at a cost they calculate, which means at a loss. Which isn’t really a sustainable model as business become bankrupt.
Plus the government spent and spent when the money was coming in, just like Gordo did here, so when things changed there was no money under the sofa.
All and all the typical ending of a socialist country. So no surprises there.
What we need to do though is look at what that does to the average punter.
Many are starving, it is impossible for them to get food and they are adapting to steal, barter and go outside social norms to survive. This has been going on for weeks so our plans for simply putting out heads down for a few weeks look unlikely. It is unlikely that we will go unnoticed for long enough to survive. Someone will notice that we are not starving, our kids may say or do something to their friends and we will then become the subject of unwanted visitors. Even basics like soap, toilet rolls, clothes will give us away and any animals that are not able to be hidden completely will be the subject of interest. Chickens, ducks and other small animals are not quiet animals and will be hunted down. If you have any of these animals you need to hide or relocate them the instant that you recognise what is going on.
Plus with people breaking into houses you need to ensure that anything you have is stored out of the way. Somewhere where you can get to it but it will be safe. Alternatively you need to have a permanent guard on your items and be prepared to fight for them.
I’m looking at just disappearing for a few months if anything happens but this shows that people are surviving those few months and you can’t hide forever. You either need to disappear completely and hope nobody finds you or you need to be ruthless with anyone attempting to take your stuff. Not many of us can be that ruthless. It is something to think about.
Consider your own situation.
- Can you survive six months of little food?
- Will your neighbours be looking at stealing from you?
- Have you enough for your family to survive six months?
- Can you defend your stores for months?
- Can you hide your livestock for months?
- Can your family keep OPSEC?
Most of us are planning to bug in. In this situation could we do that?
I don’t think most of us have considered this scenario carefully enough. We have assumed quick die off and empty streets within a few months. These people are still surviving after nearly six months with no sign of it finishing. Can you survive that?
Personally, I’m looking at my contingency plans again and changing my thoughts on how quickly our streets will be cleared. I can tell you now that it will require changes to my plans and require more hidden stores plus a complete rethink on my livestock management which will be the biggest issue for me. It also reinforces the statement that you do not want to be city based and if you are you need an exceptional Bug In plan or a valid Bug Out plan.
Time to update your contingency plans I think especially as several western countries have told their people to stock up and prepare for emergencies, not the UK of course, our government is too busy working on the sugar tax to add another stealth tax to the very long list and working out how to delay Brexit. Critical things for our wonderful leaders.
All good points SD, for what its worth its what i worry about the most, what good are preps if not hidden away , what good is a full garden of crops ….when all will want to grab it from you…what if its a gang, for sure there will be lots of gangs …….but like it or not that will be reality even the normal.
I have never believed in a fast die off …sheeple ,old people,and those with medical needs Will die out fast ….but there will be plenty of new born again survivalists who will want to live at our expense.
In short SD i agree with you ….We all should take another look at our plans for our survival which may have to change at a moments notice ….thing is we need to predetermine where we will be heading too good place to start is the four cardinal points on the compass from your BOL am i ready ? as much as i think i am …….i sometimes wonder if i really am …and could i pull it off is the truth.
Half of Venezuelan kids are starving to death all thanks to SOCIALISM but of course the socialists will blame everyone but themselves just like here in the UK.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3794086/Horrifying-photos-children-dying-hunger-HALF-population-lives-critical-poverty-socialist-Venezuela.html
Just waiting for all the galloping lefties in London to demand we go and bring millions of venezuelans to the UK.
Funny that they never want to bring western type people here but only those that can’t contribute.
All the points raised by Skean Dhude in his post are valid but the kind of problems that could cause a starvation event are not all political or economic as with Venezuela.
Very few people stop to think how complicated the mechanisms that move our food, water, fuel or waste actually are and how easily they can fail. We live in a giant and very complicated house of cards.
The problem with defending your cashe by force is how far will you go bearing in mind there may well be a return of law and order which could cast anything you do (or planned to do) as immoral or criminal.
By the laws of the land you can defend yourself (or another person) using reasonable force. You may kill in self defence only if you believe that your life (or the life of another) is in immediate danger provided that there is no premeditation on your part and you have no other choice ….basically meaning that you cannot legally plan for your own defence by means of violence. Bit of a problem there but there you have it…the law is an ass. Even something as simple as standing a baseball bat in the corner of the room can be looked upon as premeditation of violence but if you change the way the bat is perceived in law by leaving a baseball and glove with the bat it simply becomes discarded sporting equipment that could have been to hand in an emergency.
Agree but it usually takes an external event to trigger a supply chain issue. Extreme weather, terrorism and fuel shortages can do it.
As far as the law and order bit is concerned that is true and we should be careful. Assuming our criminal contingent do the same thing. This is why the law is an ass.
We owe it to ourselves to stay within the law as far as is possible and not draw unwelcome attention to ourselves and other preppers if it is at all possible. For this reason I tend to avoid extreme political statements. You do what you like but just be aware that keywords can draw the interest of the powers that be…..
The Stasi are hot on keyboard warriors. We don’t tend to resist arrest so they can persecute us without any risk. The real criminals however are a different thing and they frequently escape justice.
Europe is in a tough position…the U.S. population centers of gravity are too.
Planning for six months is a good starting point. Load up on water, food, and ammo. Although I was in the U.S. Army it will be hard to “blow-away” fellow citizens but after reading (in Army schooling) “Duffer’s Drift” it is better to be proactive and anticipate weaknesses. Hence your surfacing contingency plans.
The first six months require “getting mean”. Hopefully, after that period, compassion will prevail and communities will jell together.
Dave
Welcome to the site.
Not read ‘Duffer’s Drift’. I’ll have a look on Amazon.
Most of us, including me, think we can pull the trigger easily if we needed to. Can we really? Only time will tell. That is the subject of my next article actually.
30 days without food and 3 or 4 days without water should sort most of the sheeple out, just don’t live in a big city or a large urban centre when the balloon goes up.
Can you survive six months of little food? What’s little?
Will your neighbours be looking at stealing from you? Who wouldn’t if they were starving.
Have you enough for your family to survive six months? Realistically that’s a heck of a lot of food.
Can you defend your stores for months? Once someone finds out? Probably not.
Can you hide your livestock for months? Probably not unless you can gag them or keep them indoors.
Can your family keep OPSEC?
This is nothing to do with OPSEC this is to do with what people will see.
Realistically those who can do this are going to stick out like a sore thumb within a few weeks.
No decent food shows on a person and quickly too.
Only don’t be fooled into thinking that you’re safe in a rural setting.
Even there your ‘fitness and appearance’ will draw attention as would any defences.
What are you defending against?
Success in prepping will draw questions and no amount of lies can deflect you looking good while others are starving.
6 months without food and the British population will be decimated, a fraction of what it once was.
most people don’t know where their food comes from and what it looks like in its natural state, they have no idea of cooking or hygiene. more people will die of starvation and disease than will die by violent means- unless they live in the inner city that is.
Dave, welcome… I’m not sure if you’re aware but in the UK we usually have a maximum amount of ammunition (keyword) that we are able to buy at any one time, also a maximum that we are allowed to posses (usually you can only hold twice as much as you can buy at any one time)
Stocking up on ammunition isn’t something I would publicly condone for a UK based prepper, I certainly wouldn’t risk my licence holding more then my 500 rounds. I prefer to have a plan for getting more after the shit hits the fan. Learn where distributors stores are and list any gunrooms hat are easy to access.
Yes, ready and waiting. Fortunately, being older, I eat less.